Global Economic Trends and Local Insights
US nonfarm payrolls slightly improved in April, with job gains coming in above market forecasts, while average hourly earnings also rose more than anticipated. China’s exports staged a strong rebound during the month despite heightened tensions in the Middle East, significantly widening the country’s trade surplus with the US. In the UK, economic activity picked up in April after stagnating in March, although price pressures intensified at a pace not seen in the survey period outside the pandemic. Locally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its 2026 growth outlook for South Africa, underscoring the economic impact of ongoing Middle East tensions on the domestic economy.
Source: Graviton News
Macro Overview
Global overview
Global equities bounced back strongly in April with the MSCI World Index gaining 9.59% month-on- month (m/m) in dollar terms, despite March’s loss of -6.37% m/m. The US mega-cap tech shares were amongst the best performers for the month. The initial driver for the surge in equities was the US announcement on 7 April of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, while robust US corporate earnings helped sustain the positive momentum. Emerging markets (EM) also started the second quarter of 2026 positively, with the MSCI EM Index ending at 14.73% m/m in dollars, boosted by currency tailwinds, which saw the US dollar weaker against most major currencies in the month. The FTSE 100 ended April in positive territory at 2.77% m/m from March’s losses of -6.68% m/m in pound sterling terms. The S&P 500 gained 10.49% in April from March with losses of -4.98% m/m, both in dollars. Global bonds were in positive territory at 1.25% m/m from March’s -3.07% m/m in dollars. From significantly declining in March, Global Property ended April positively at 8.52% m/m in dollars. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index outperformed for the month at 6.34% m/m from the previous month’s underperformance of -9.14% m/m in euros. The Dow Jones Index also ended April in positive territory at 7.24% m/m in dollars from the previous month’s losses. The Nikkei rebounded from March losses of -12.68% m/m, to become one of the biggest gainers for April at 16.10% m/m in yen terms.
Local overview
The JSE did enough in April to nudge the bourse back into positive territory from the previous month’s losses, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index ending at 1.65% m/m in rand terms. The performance of the JSE in April 2026 was largely defined by a recovery attempt following a severe March downturn, driven by fluctuating commodity prices and high volatility caused by geopolitical tensions. Resources’ March underperformance continued into April, ending at -2.30% m/m. Both Property and Financials outperformed in April at 5.40% m/m and 4.25% m/m respectively, from the previous month’s losses of -11.41% m/m and -9.65% m/m respectively, in rand terms. The Industrials sector was in positive territory for April at 2.52% m/m from March’s negative figure of -6.55% m/m. Cash continued with its positive figure from March to April, ending at 0.54% m/m in rand terms and 3.06% m/m in dollar terms. Local bonds recovered from the March sell-off, and the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index ended positively 3.27% m/m in rand terms. Bonds of 1-3 years were positive at 0.58% m/m, along with bonds of 3-7 years at 1.56% m/m. Bonds of 7-12 years were also positive at 3.25% m/m, and bonds of 12 years and above were positive at 4.78% m/m. The rand strengthened against the US dollar and euro at 2.50% m/m and 0.68% m/m respectively, but weakened against the British pound at -0.53% m/m.