The US economy grew in the first quarter of 2026, outperforming market expectations. At its June meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to leave interest rates unchanged as it continued to assess inflation and labour market conditions. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) expects China’s economic growth to slow in 2026 and 2027, highlighting energy market disruptions and softer global demand as key risks. Meanwhile, the eurozone economy has shown resilience despite trade-related challenges and elevated uncertainty throughout 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. In South Africa, inflation rose, driven largely by higher energy costs, while the economy recorded modest growth during the first quarter.

Global equities wobbled into the halfway mark of 2026, falling for only the second time in fifteen months, with the MSCI World Index ending in negative territory at -0.72% m/m, though it remained up 9.69% year-to-date (YTD), both in US dollars. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped drive the oil price lower, roughly in line with where it had been trading before the start of the Iran war at the end of February. Emerging market (EM) equities also struggled in June, with the MSCI EM Index ending at -1.36% m/m, with the biggest drag coming from Chinese stocks. Disappointing macroeconomic data out of China worsened investor sentiment, with the country’s latest retail sales data showing a drop in retail spending for the first time since China’s post- COVID-19 reopening in 2022. The FTSE 100 ended June in positive territory at 0.69% m/m, although this was lower than May’s 1.17% m/m gain in pound sterling. The S&P 500 ended the month in negative territory at -0.95% m/m, down from May’s positive figure of 5.26%, in US dollars. Global bonds were in negative territory in June at -0.49% m/m, down from May’s 0.34% m/m gain, in US dollars. After its underperformance in May, global property ended June in positive territory at 0.86% m/m in US dollars. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index continued its gains into June, ending positively at 4.69% m/m, up from May’s 3.92% m/m in euros. The Dow Jones Index ended June in positive territory at 2.71% m/m, compared to May’s positive figure of 2.93% m/m in US dollars. After ending May as a gainer, the Nikkei Index continued its strong performance into June, gaining 5.70% m/m in yen terms.

The JSE fell for a second consecutive month, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index ending the month in negative territory at -3.68% m/m in rand terms, dragging it into negative territory at the midpoint of 2026. Precious metals miners were the biggest drag on the JSE in June. The falling gold price dragged the miners lower, while their precious metals peers, the platinum miners, fared even worse. The underperformance of Resources in May continued into June, ending at -15.93% m/m. Both Property and Financials outperformed in June, at 3.74% m/m and 2.62% m/m respectively, compared with the previous month’s gains of 0.62% m/m and 0.93% m/m respectively, in rand terms. The Industrials sector was in positive territory for June at 0.78% m/m, compared with May’s gain of 1.40% m/m. Cash continued its positive returns from May to June, ending at 0.55% m/m in rand terms, but declined to -0.65% m/m in US dollar terms. Local bond gains continued into June, with the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index ending positively at 1.50% m/m. Bonds of 1-3 years were positive at 0.61% m/m, along with bonds of 3-7 years at 1.01% m/m. Bonds of 7-12 years were also positive at 1.60%, while bonds of 12 years and above were positive at 1.83% m/m. The rand weakened against the US dollar by -1.19% m/m but strengthened against the euro by 0.85% m/m and against the pound sterling by 0.35% m/m.