Global Economic Trends and Local Insights
Manufacturing activity in the US gained momentum in March, but the outlook is clouded by rising inflationary pressures, driven by geopolitical tensions and ongoing tariff-related costs. In China, industrial and manufacturing output growth strengthened, and it experienced the fastest expansion in foreign trade for several years. Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD) revised down its forecast for UK economic growth in 2025 ‒ the largest downgrade among major economies. South Africa’s economy grew in the fourth quarter of 2025, extending its streak of consecutive quarterly expansions and underscoring its resilience despite a challenging global environment.
Source: Graviton News
Macro Overview
Global overview
Global equities recorded their worst month in over three years in March, with the MSCI World Index ending at -6.37% month-on-month (m/m) in US dollar terms, as US and Israeli military strikes on Iran impacted investor confidence. Iran’s military responded to the strikes by refusing passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, driving a spike in oil prices. Emerging markets (EMs), which have previously outperformed their developed market (DM) peers, were a significant underperformer in March, with the MSCI EM Index ending at -13.03% m/m in US dollars. The FTSE 100 ended the month in negative territory at -6.68% m/m from February’s 6.47% m/m gains in pound sterling terms. The S&P 500’s losses continued into March at -4.98% m/m from February’s -0.76% m/m losses, both in US dollars. Global bonds ended the month in negative territory at -3.07% m/m from February’s 1.12% m/m gains in US dollars. Global property significantly underperformed in March, ending at -9.00% m/m from February’s 7.01% m/m gains in US dollars. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index underperformed for the month at -9.14% m/m from February’s 3.34% m/m gains in euros. The Dow Jones Index also ended the month in negative territory at -5.20% m/m from February’s 0.31% m/m gains in US dollars. From being the biggest gainer in February at 10.42% m/m, the Nikkei was one of the biggest underperformers for March at -12.68% m/m in yen terms.
Local overview
The South African equity market’s recent streak as a top-performing global bourse ended abruptly in March when the FTSE/JSE All Share Index ended in negative territory at -10.45% m/m in rand terms. A rally by domestic equities on the last day of March saved the local bourse from delivering its worst monthly drawdown since the 2008 global financial crisis. Precious metal miners, the driving force of the previous outperformance, were the biggest detractors in March. Resources significantly underperformed in March at -15.24% m/m from February’s 13.32% m/m gains. Both Property and Financials underperformed in March, at -11.41% m/m and -9.65% m/m respectively, from February’s gains of 6.29% m/m and 7.32% m/m respectively, in rand terms. The Industrials sector was in negative territory at -6.55% m/m from February’s positive 6.56% m/m. Cash was positive for the month, at 0.56% m/m from February’s 0.51% m/m gains in rand terms, but it underperformed by -6.49% m/m in US dollar terms. Local bonds were another casualty of the March sell-off, with the FTSE/JSE All Bond Index ending the month negatively at -6.83% m/m in rand terms. Bonds of 1-3 years were negative at -0.69% m/m, along with bonds of 3-7 years at -3.94% m/m. Bonds of 7-12 years were also negative at -6.62 m/m, and bonds of 12 years and above were negative at -9.27% m/m. The rand was the worst-performing major currency in March, weakening by -7.01% m/m against the US dollar, by -4.71% m/m against the euro, and by -5.19% m/m against the British pound.