Investment Committee Comment

In November, the US experienced the most extensive economic shut down in history, disrupting government operations and delaying wages and salaries for workers. Projections for the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy rate returning to its neutral range of 3.00 – 3.25% have now been pushed to late 2026, consistent with S&P Global’s outlook. Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing activity showed a slight uptick in November but remained in contraction for the eighth consecutive month. On the domestic front, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points during November. Additionally, South Africa’s unemployment rate declined in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025.

Developed market (DM) equities rallied in the last few days of November to end in positive territory for the month with the MSCI World Index ending at 0.28% month-on-month (m/m) in dollars, extending a run of positive monthly returns. Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, announced better-thanexpected results for their most recent financial quarter. Emerging market (EM) stocks lagged their DM peers in November and ended in negative territory with the MSCI EM Index at -2.38% m/m in dollars. Chinese equities were the biggest drag on the EM Index during November as they digested some of the strong YTD gains. The FTSE 100’s October gains continued into November, ending at 0.37% m/m in pound terms. The S&P 500 ended November at 0.25% m/m relative to 2.34% m/m in the previous month, both in US dollars. Global bonds were in positive territory for November at 0.23% m/m in dollars relative to the previous month’s losses. Global property was in negative territory in October but recovered in November at 2.05% m/m in dollars. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index gained 0.29% in November from October’s 2.53% m/m gain in euros. The Dow Jones Index gained 0.48% m/m in US dollars in November, below October’s 2.59% m/m gains. From being the biggest gainer in October, the Nikkei was a laggard in November at -4.12% m/m in yen terms.

The JSE was one of the best-performing global stock markets in November with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index ending at 1.70% m/m in rand terms. Precious metal miners were back as the driving force of JSE returns in November, with gold and platinum miners up in aggregate, boosted by a re-acceleration in precious metal prices. Resources posted gains in November at 9.57% m/m from a previous detraction of at -4.79% m/m in October. Both Property and Financials continued with gains into November at 7.71% m/m and 1.76% m/m respectively in rand terms. After posting losses in September and October, Industrials recovered in November with gains of 2.30% m/m. Cash was in positive territory for the month at 0.57% m/m in rand terms. The local bond market gains continued from October into November for short-, medium-, and long-term bonds. The FTSE/JSE All Bond Index ended November positively at 3.45% m/m in rand terms. Bonds of 1-3 years were positive at 0.82% m/m, along with bonds of 3-7 years at 1.64% m/m. Bonds of 7-12 years were positive at 3.20% m/m, and bonds of 12 years and above were the biggest gainer for the month at 5.38% m/m. The rand strengthened against the US dollar, euro and British pound by 1.20% m/m, 0.64% m/m, and 0.35% m/m respectively.