Global Economic Trends and Local Insights
US economic growth softened more than expected in the fourth quarter, although both consumer and business spending showed resilience. In China, consumer inflation posted its strongest rise in more than three years in February, supported by extended holiday‑related spending and a slowdown in factory‑gate deflation. In addition, Beijing lowered its GDP growth target at its February economic planning meeting, acknowledging persistent deflationary pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Tensions in the Middle East during February pushed global oil and natural gas prices sharply higher. In the UK, unemployment climbed to its highest level since 2020 during the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting broad‑based labour‑market weakness. South Africa’s national budget was positively received, helping to lift the bond market. South Africa’s consumer inflation also eased slightly in January 2026 compared with December 2025, adding to signs of gradual price moderation.
Source: Graviton News
Macro Overview
Global overview
Global equity markets delivered an eleventh consecutive monthly gain in February, with the MSCI World Index ending at 0.73% month-on-month (m/m) in dollars, despite a drawdown in US stocks. The lagging performance of US growth stocks was evident within the Magnificent Seven group of mega‑cap tech companies, as investors grew wary of the massive AI‑related capital expenditures ‒ amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars ‒that these firms are projecting. Emerging market (EM) equities extended their lead over their developed market (DM) peers with the MSCI EM Index ending positively at 5.51% m/m in dollars. The EM outperformance was driven by commodity-producing countries. The FTSE 100’s January gains continued into February, ending the month up 6.47% m/m from 3.08% m/m in pound sterling terms. The S&P 500 ended the month negatively at -0.76% m/m from January’s 1.44% m/m gains, both in US dollars. Global bond gains continued into February at 1.12% m/m from January’s 0.94% m/m gains in dollars. Global property posted large gains for the month at 7.01% m/m from January’s 3.88% m/m in dollars. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index gained 3.34% m/m in February from 2.79% m/m in January in euros. The Dow Jones Index gained 0.31% m/m in February from January’s 1.80% m/m gains in US dollars. The Nikkei was the biggest gainer for the month at 10.42% m/m from January’s 5.93% m/m gains in yen terms.
Local overview
South African equities led performance in February, with the FTSE/JSE All Share Index ending positively at 7.01% m/m in rand terms. Year-to-date gains of 10.99% placed the JSE among the top-performing major markets globally, trailing only Japan and Brazil’s stock markets. Precious metal shares were once again a key driver of returns for the month, contributing significantly to February’s JSE index gains amid strong commodity price increases. Gains in the Resources sector continued in February at 13.32% m/m from January’s 12.49% m/m gains. Both Property and Financials continued their gains in February, at 6.29% m/m and 7.32% m/m respectively, in rand terms. The Industrials sector was positive in February at 6.56% m/m from January’s negative figure of -0.58% m/m. Cash was positive for the month, at 0.51% m/m from January’s 0.57% m/m in rand terms and 1.27% in February in dollar terms from 3.91% in January in dollar terms. As in January, the local bond market’s gains continued in February for short-, medium-, and long-term bonds. The FTSE/JSE All Bond Index ended the month positively at 1.74% m/m in rand terms. Bonds of 1-3 years were positive at 0.59% m/m, along with bonds of 3-7 years at 0.80% m/m. Bonds of 7-12 years were positive at 1.23% m/m, and bonds of 12 years and above gained 2.79% m/m. In February, the rand strengthened by 0.75% m/m against the US dollar, by 1.52% m/m against the euro, and by 2.84% m/m against the British pound.