Global Economic Trends and Local Insights

In November, the US experienced the most extensive economic shutdown in history, disrupting government operations and delaying wages and salaries for workers. Projections for the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy rate returning to its neutral range of 3.00–3.25% have now been pushed to late 2026, consistent with S&P Global’s outlook. Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing activity showed a slight uptick in November but remained in contraction for the eighth consecutive month. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in November. South Africa’s unemployment rate declined in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025.

Source: Graviton Perspectives

Macro Overview

Global overview

Developed market (DM) equities rallied in the last few days of November to end in positive territory for the month. The MSCI World Index ended at 0.28% month-on-month (m/m) in US dollars, extending a run of positive monthly returns. Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, announced better-than-expected results for its most recent financial quarter. Emerging market (EM) stocks lagged their DM peers in November and ended in negative territory, with the MSCI EM Index at -2.38% m/m in US dollars. Chinese equities were the biggest drag on the EM Index in November as they digested some of the strong year-to-date gains. The FTSE 100’s October gains continued into November, and ended up 0.37% m/m in pound terms. The S&P 500 ended November at 0.25% m/m compared to 2.34% m/m in the previous month, both in US dollars. Global bonds were in positive territory for November, at 0.23% m/m in US dollars, after the previous month’s losses. Global property was in negative territory in October but recovered in November, gaining 2.05% m/m in US dollars. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index gained 0.29% in November from October’s 2.53% m/m gain in euros. The Dow Jones Index gained 0.48% m/m in US dollars in November, below October’s 2.59% m/m gains. From being the biggest gainer in October, the Nikkei was a laggard in November, at -4.12% m/m in yen terms.

Local overview

The JSE was one of the best-performing global stock markets in November, with the FTSE/ JSE All Share Index ending at 1.70% m/m in rand terms. Precious metal miners were back as the driving force of JSE returns in November. Gold and platinum miners were up in aggregate, boosted by a re-acceleration in precious metal prices. Resources posted gains in November, at 9.57% m/m, after recording -4.79% m/m in October. Both Property and Financials continued their gains into November, at 7.71% m/m and 1.76% m/m respectively, in rand terms. After posting losses in September and October, Industrials recovered in November with gains of 2.30% m/m. Cash was in positive territory for the month at 0.57% m/m in rand terms. The local bond market’s gains continued from October into November for short-, medium-, and long-term bonds. The FTSE/ JSE All Bond Index ended November positively at 3.45% m/m in rand terms. Bonds of 1-3 years were positive at 0.82% m/m, along with bonds of 3-7 years at 1.64% m/m. Bonds of 7-12 years were positive at 3.20% m/m, and bonds of 12 years and above were the biggest gainer for the month at 5.38% m/m. The rand strengthened against the US dollar, euro and British pound by 1.20% m/m, 0.64% m/m, and 0.35% m/m respectively.